Analysis of the 2022 NMTC Allocation Awards

Last Friday, September 22, 2023, the CDFI Fund awarded $5 billion in NMTC allocation to 102 CDEs.

2022 NMTC Program Award Resources

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Five Year Track Record Analysis

A note of caution: We cannot know for certain what CDEs proposed in their 2022 applications. This analysis is somewhat speculative. I do not mean to imply that the CDFI Fund favors certain activities over others. However, using CDEs’ recent track record gives us a general idea of which types of CDEs won allocation. Using NMTC Coalition data from the past 5 years of NMTC transactions (2018-2022), I compared the track record of organizations that won a 2022 allocation (999 projects and $8.5 billion deployed) to the track record of organizations that did not win a 2022 allocation (455 projects and $5.9 billion deployed).

I noticed a few patterns and a few areas where there was no difference between awarded CDEs and others. For example, the share of manufacturing projects and rural projects was higher for award recipients than it was for those who did not win an award in 2022.

I was curious whether project size or the prevalence of multi-CDE projects made a difference in award amounts. The median total project size and the average number of CDEs in each deal were similar for both groups. 

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I also checked real estate vs non-real estate projects and found no trends.

Allocatee Experience

This was a tough year for new applicants trying to break into the program. Only 3 first-time award recipients (by my count) received allocation, though these CDEs all have staff with significant familiarity with the NMTC program:

  1. Advanced CapAccess
  2. Native American Bank, N.A.
  3. Three Roots Capital
 
The median 2022 NMTC award recipient has won 6 previous awards (in addition to the 2022 award) totaling $346 million in allocation.

Targeting Indigenous Communities

Several CDEs with a track record (or likely business plan) or investments in Indiana Country received allocations. Based on CDEs’ track record of investments, we project about $332 million out of $5 billion (6.6 percent) of NMTC allocation will reach Indigenous Communities and census tracts with a plurality of Native Americans, Alaskan Natives, or Native Hawaiians.

If these numbers pan out, this would be a record year for NMTC investments in Indian Country. The program average is about 1.5%, though it has been increasing recently.